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EXPECT Pakistan to give in once again on the
vital question of permitting US supplies through its territory
to Afghanistan. Pakistan will, however, extract a higher price
in terms of increased civil and military aid. Pakistani army
will also continue its clandestine relationship with terror
groups, on the sly, both in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Drone
attacks will continue on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan
border. ISAF will somewhat improve its hold on Afghanistan.
Nepal may finally succeed in putting together
a constitution by about the middle of the year. Bangladesh,
Bhutan and Sri Lanka are likely to continue to remain stable and
to maintain a steady relationship with India. |
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OF
all the countries in the world's most populous region of South
Asia, Pakistan went through the worst in 2011. The country's
relationship with its strategic ally, the United States, had
already been under severe strain even before the al-Qaida
leader, Osama bin Laden was tracked down to Abbottabad and
killed in a unilateral action by the United States. Pakistan
protested vehemently, questioning CIA's presence in the country
and threatening non-cooperation in the on-going war against
terror in neighbouring Afghanistan. But good sense finally
prevailed and a semblance of normalcy was achieved.
The real break in relationship, however,
came towards the end of the year when the NATO air force
helicopters attacked a Pakistani border outpost killing 25
Pakistani troops. This action proved to be the proverbial last
straw on the camel's back. Pakistan retaliated by stopping the
movement of supplies and armaments to the NATO troops in
Afghanistan through its territory. It also asked the United
States to evacuate its Shamsi air field in Balochistan which was
being used by the CIA to mount drone attacks on the terrorists
seeking shelter on the Pakistani side of the Pakistan-Afghan
border. Pakistan also decided, instead, to open up negotiations
with terrorists groups and to strengthen its strategic
relationship with China.
Nepal saw a new Prime Minister, Baburam
Bhattarai take over in an effort to break the continuing
political stalemate. Bhattarai did seem to make some headway
when an agreement of sorts was reached on the vexed question of
absorbing ex-communist fighters into the security forces of the
country. Other than that, there was still not much progress on
the drafting of the new constitution. As expected, with a
communist dominated government and constituent assembly, Nepal
moved a few inches closer to China and, correspondingly, that
much distance away from India. The people to people relationship
between India and Nepal, however, is so emotional and all
pervasive that no government in Nepal, communist or otherwise,
can succeed in driving a wedge between the two countries.
The relationship between India Bangladesh
just got that much better during the year. Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh paid an official visit to Bangladesh. Several
agreements for cooperation between the two countries were
signed, including an agreement on exchange of certain disputed
territories between the two countries based on the wishes of the
people involved. The visit could have yielded much more but for
the last minute spanner in the works by West Bengal's Chief
Minister, Mamata Bannerjee. Mamata's protest prevented the two
sides from inking a deal on the sharing of the waters of the
river Teesta. The two Prime Ministers, however, did not let this
development affect the overall relationship and India opened up
its market to textile imports from Bangladesh.
Bhutan, during the year, was quite excited
about its royal wedding when its young king Jigme Khesar Namgyel
Wangchuck married Jetsun Pema. Ecstatic rowds greeted the royal
couple at all the ceremonies. The couple spent two weeks after
the wedding on a honeymoon in India.
Sri Lanka remained peaceful and stable
except for its government continuing to persecute its former
army chief, General Fonseka, for having dared to contest against
President Mahinda Rajapaksa. · |
